The Blubber

The labor contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), representing 45,000 port workers, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group is set to expire late Monday, with negotiations stalled over wage issues.

USMX released a statement Monday saying it had proposed a nearly 50% wage increase and exchanged new proposals with the union in the last 24 hours. They also requested an extension of the current master contract. "We are hopeful that this could allow us to fully resume collective bargaining around the other outstanding issues to reach an agreement," the statement said.

A potential strike could severely impact the U.S. economy, with JP Morgan analysts estimating losses of $5 billion a day as shipments of food, retail products, and other goods would be delayed at major ports, including New York, Baltimore, and Houston.

The ILA confirmed the strike will begin at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday. The union did not immediately comment on the situation. A source close to the matter said USMX’s latest offer was rejected by the ILA, with the union labeling it an "unacceptable wage package."

If the strike goes ahead, it would be the first coast-wide ILA strike since 1977, affecting ports that handle nearly half of the nation's ocean freight. Rick Cotton, head of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, said terminals would close at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, with around 100,000 containers remaining at the port until the strike ends. Thirty-five additional ships expected to arrive in the next week will remain anchored during the strike.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Suzanne Clark urged President Joe Biden to prevent the walkout by invoking his authority to delay the strike for 80 days, stating it would be "unconscionable" to allow a labor dispute to disrupt the economy. However, Biden said on Sunday he had no plans to intervene.

On Monday, the White House reiterated that it is not considering invoking the federal Taft-Hartley Act, which would force workers back on the job while negotiations continue. White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and economic adviser Lael Brainard met with USMX board members, encouraging a swift and fair resolution, according to a White House official.

The ILA has previously assured that military cargo shipments and cruise traffic would not be affected by the strike. However, the stoppage could severely disrupt the flow of goods like food and automobiles at major ports, threatening jobs and raising inflation just weeks before the U.S. presidential election.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul expressed concern, noting the strike could affect auto imports but added that the state doesn’t expect immediate disruption to food suppliers or essential goods. "We’re deeply concerned about the impact a strike could have on our supply chains, especially critical goods like medical supplies," Hochul said.

National Association of Manufacturers CEO Jay Timmons warned that a strike would wreak havoc on U.S. manufacturing supply chains. "Billions of dollars in goods—everything from food to vehicles to electronics—rely on access to East and Gulf Coast ports," he said.

While a short strike might have limited economic consequences as many companies have stockpiled goods or diverted shipments to West Coast ports, an extended strike could cause significant disruption. ILA leader Harold Daggett, known for his strong rhetoric, warned in a recent video, "These people today don’t know what a strike is. I’ll cripple you. I will cripple you."