Global oil consumption is surging, surpassing expectations and raising doubts about when peak consumption will occur.
The world is using more oil than ever and demand is outpacing expectations again this year
3/27/2024
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At the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, industry leaders expressed confidence in rising oil demand, despite the growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy. Many attendees believe that oil consumption will continue to increase for years, challenging efforts to decarbonize the global economy.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, advocated for investing in oil and gas rather than phasing them out, citing realistic demand projections. Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol SA, noted that his company has pushed back the estimated peak in oil consumption to the early 2030s due to slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 1.3 million barrel per day increase in oil demand in 2024, down from last year's 2.2 million barrel jump driven by China's recovery from Covid restrictions. Despite this slight decrease, daily demand is expected to reach a record 103.2 million barrels this year, with factors like the strength of the US economy and shipping diversions contributing to this growth.
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However, many industry experts believe the IEA's forecasts are too conservative, both in the short and medium term, and expect global oil demand to peak later than the IEA predicts, possibly after the end of this decade.
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