The Blubber

Wild Swings Rock U.S. Markets as Volatility Surges

On Monday morning, the S&P 500 experienced a dramatic whipsaw, dropping as much as 4.71% before swiftly reversing course and rallying up to 3.40% — all within roughly 35 minutes.

This nearly 8-point intraday swing marked the index’s widest trading range since March 13, 2020 — although that session saw an all-upward rally. The last time the S&P 500 made a similar sharp turnaround from deep losses to gains was back on November 13, 2008.

Midday Rally Fizzles as Markets Slip Again

Around midday Monday, stocks appeared to mount a strong rebound, only to quickly give up gains and slip back into the red.

The S&P 500 had surged as much as 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 705 points, or about 1.7%. But momentum faded, and all three major indexes reversed direction shortly after.

Dow and Nasdaq Erase All 2024 Gains

Monday’s sharp drop marked the third consecutive day of steep losses, pushing both the Dow and Nasdaq Composite into negative territory for the year.

After strong performances last year — with the Dow up 4,855 points and the Nasdaq gaining 4,299 — 2025 has erased those advances. The Dow has now shed 5,660 points (a 13% drop), while the Nasdaq is down more than 4,400 points, a decline of 23%.

The S&P 500 has lost 17% year to date and now sits just about 100 points above

UBS Warns: Expect More Volatility Ahead

Following President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs and the intensifying global response, UBS is cautioning that markets may stay volatile in the weeks to come.

“Equity volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming weeks,” wrote David Lefkowitz, CIO Head of U.S. Equities at UBS, in a Monday research note. He attributed the heightened risk to uncertainty surrounding the administration’s trade policy and the potential for retaliatory measures.

Lefkowitz also pointed out that markets haven’t yet fully priced in the chance of a U.S. recession, suggesting more short-term downside may lie ahead.

Still, looking further out, he sees a recovery driven by long-term growth drivers like AI and a potential easing in trade tensions. His end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 5,800 — a projected 14% rise from Friday’s close.