The Blubber

Your beloved iPhone might be about to get significantly more expensive, thanks to a new wave of global tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. The sweeping trade measures are expected to reshape the flow of goods worldwide, and analysts warned Thursday that consumer electronics like iPhones could be among the most affected—potentially seeing price hikes of 30% to 40% if Apple decides to pass the additional costs on to buyers.

Currently, most iPhones are manufactured in China, which was hit with a hefty 54% tariff under the new policy. If those duties remain in place, Apple (AAPL.O) faces a difficult decision: absorb the increased costs themselves or shift the burden to consumers.

The company’s stock reflected the concern, tumbling 9.3% on Thursday—its steepest single-day drop since March 2020.

Apple sells over 220 million iPhones annually, with major markets in the United States, China, and Europe. The entry-level iPhone 16 starts at $799 in the U.S., but under the new cost projections from Rosenblatt Securities, that could balloon to $1,142—a 43% increase—if Apple passes on the full cost of the tariffs. Meanwhile, the top-tier iPhone 16 Pro Max, currently priced at $1,599, could surge to nearly $2,300 under the same assumptions.

Rosenblatt analysts say the company would need to raise iPhone prices by 43% across the board just to offset the new tariffs.

During Trump’s first term, Apple was granted tariff exemptions for several of its products. This time around, no such waivers have been announced, adding to the uncertainty. Trump’s intention, then and now, is to encourage U.S. companies to shift production away from China and toward domestic or nearby locations like Mexico.

"This whole China tariff situation is unfolding in a way we didn’t expect—Apple, an American icon, was treated delicately last time, but not this time," Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note to investors.

Even the more budget-friendly iPhone 16e, introduced in February at $599, could jump to $856 with a 43% increase. And it's not just iPhones—analysts say prices of other Apple products could rise as well.