The Blubber

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tax and spending plans would lead to more than double the amount of new debt compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposals, according to estimates released by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a think tank focused on reducing federal deficits. On Monday, the CRFB provided detailed figures, showing that Harris’ plans would add $3.5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, while Trump’s would increase it by $7.5 trillion.

The CRFB's "central estimate" covers a range of potential outcomes based on both candidates' ideas presented on the campaign trail. For Harris, the range goes from zero added debt on the low end to $8.1 trillion on the high end. For Trump, the range spans from $1.45 trillion to $15.15 trillion in new debt. These estimates offer a broad picture of how each candidate’s proposals might impact future deficits.

Trump's tax and spending promises include extending the 2017 individual tax cuts, which are set to expire next year, and eliminating taxes on income from tips, Social Security, and overtime pay. His only major revenue-generating idea is to increase tariffs, which the CRFB estimates would raise $2.7 trillion.

Harris, on the other hand, has pledged to increase the Child Tax Credit, provide a $6,000 bonus credit for newborns, expand spending on child and elder care, and offer a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. To offset these costs, she plans to increase taxes on corporations and households earning more than $400,000, with the CRFB estimating these increases would generate $4.25 trillion in revenue.

Both campaigns responded critically to the estimates. A spokesperson for Harris argued that her policies would reduce the deficit, pointing to her pledges to pay for her proposed initiatives. Meanwhile, Trump’s senior adviser, Brian Hughes, dismissed the CRFB’s findings, arguing that Trump’s plan would curb wasteful spending, reduce inflation, and stimulate economic growth, which would boost federal revenue.