Per Yahoo Finance
Pantheon Macroeconomics founder says home prices could fall 15% in 2023, citing the price-to-income gap
2/17/2023
US economist Ian Sheptherdson shared his thoughts on how he sees a potential 15% drop in home prices in 2023. Sheptherdson is the founder and chief US economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The US economist also gave a statement in 2005 that predicted the housing crash of 2008. Shepherdson cited multiple factors, including the gap between the price of homes and buyers' income.
On top of the price-to-income gap, Shepherdson also mentioned how the housing supply and mortgage rates have risen. Combined, he said that these factors could "precipitate a period of continued deceleration."
The deduction was given instead of saying that this year could see a rebound in the housing market. In a note to clients, they were notified that market uncertainty should continue, which comes with a monthly decline.
Pantheon: “To be clear, any rebound in sales from here will be small; monthly payments for a new buyer of an existing home have fallen, but were still up 54% year-over-year in December.”
Shepherdson expects a potential drop of 15-20% to bring the price-to-income ratio back to pre-Covid numbers. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs only predicts a drop of just 6.1%.
Goldman Sachs belives that a percentage point drop resulted in a slight recovery for the housing affordability index.
Despite this, they described the market as being at an "unaffordable level." In 2022, median home prices increased by 10.2%, and aside from Shepherdson's prediction, KPMG thinks home prices could drop by 20% in 2023.
While prices increased significantly, December 2022 still saw a massive drop in sales by 34% year-over-year. However, sales are expected to increase due to the decline in mortgage rates, which saw a significant increase in 2022.
This comes as US commercial real estate investors have piled up withdrawal requests in January, reaching a massive $20 billion. This amount was second only to the Great Recession.
See flow at unusualwhales.com/flow.
Other News:
- Median home prices fell 10.2% in 2022, but KPMG economists say there could be a 20% drop in home prices in 2023
- US Commercial Real Estate Investors Withdrawal Requests Pile Up to $20 Billion, Second Largest Since Great Recession
Resources:
The Department of Homeland Security is considering the creation of a television show in which migrants would compete for potential U.S. citizenship
5/21/2025 1:53 AMU.S. Senate unanimously passes the No Tax on Tips Act
5/21/2025 1:49 AMInvestors now own 30% of metro Atlanta’s single-family rental homes
5/20/2025 9:23 PMMajority of Canadians feel unwelcome and unsafe travelling to United States
5/20/2025 8:48 PM
Stay Updated
Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest financial insights and news.
+With Unusual Whales
Get the best broker for options trading and earn Unusual Whales discounted! in cash with an eligible account deposit at tastytrade. Get an Unusual Whales bonus when you deposit $2000. Offer expires 3/31/25. Certain restrictions, terms and conditions apply.
Unusual Whales does not confirm the information's truthfulness or accuracy of the associated references, data, and cannot verify any of the information. Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Options, investing, trading is risky, and losses are more expected than profits. Please do own research before investing. Please only subscribe after reading our full terms and understanding options and the market, and the inherent risks of trading. It is highly recommended not to trade on this, or any, information from Unusual Whales. Markets are risky, and you will likely lose some or all of your capital. Please check our terms for full details.
Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. See terms for more information.