The Blubber

The UNFPA surveyed 14,000 people across 14 countries—ranging from high-income to low-income nations, and those with both high and low fertility rates. The countries included South Korea, Thailand, Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, the U.S., India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, and Nigeria—together representing one-third of the global population.

One in five respondents said they either hadn’t had or didn’t expect to have their desired number of children. Among all respondents, 39% cited financial constraints as a key reason for having fewer children than they wanted—with the highest percentage in Korea (58%) and the lowest in Sweden (19%).

Dr. Natalia Kanem, head of the UNFPA, said: “The world has begun an unprecedented decline in fertility rates. Most people surveyed want two or more children, but fertility rates are falling in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want. That is the real crisis.”

This framing marks a shift in tone from the UN. Demographer Anna Rotkirch, who advises Finland’s government and has studied fertility patterns in Europe, noted: “Calling this a crisis, saying it’s real—that’s a shift, I think. Overall, there’s more undershooting than overshooting of fertility ideals.” She was especially struck by the number of respondents over age 50 (31%) who said they had fewer children than they had hoped for.

Although the survey is limited in scope and not representative across all age groups within each country, some trends are already emerging. While infertility was cited as a barrier by only 12% overall, the percentage was higher in countries like Thailand (19%), the U.S. (16%), South Africa (15%), Nigeria (14%), and India (13%).

“This is the first time the UN has really gone all-in on low fertility issues,” said Prof. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He noted that the UNFPA had previously focused more on reducing unintended pregnancies and the unmet need for contraception.

Still, the agency is warning against overreaction. “Right now, we’re seeing rhetoric of catastrophe—overpopulation or shrinking population—which can lead to exaggerated or even manipulative responses,” said Dr. Kanem. “Whether trying to get women to have more children, or fewer.”