A recession will hit by the spring, and the S&P 500 will crash by 25% or more, per David Rosenberg

9/20/2023

A recession will hit by the spring, and the S&P 500 will crash by 25% or more, David Rosenberg has said.

Rosenberg highlighted the historical trend that the stock market tends to experience a 30% decline during a recession. He proposed that the S&P 500 might decrease by approximately 25% from its current position, reaching around 3,400 points, which represents a decline of roughly 30% from its peak of over 4,800 points observed at the beginning of 2021.

"I think the batteries are going to run out," Rosenberg said. "A consumer recession is inescapable, it's only going to be a question of how bad, not whether."

"We've created a really sclerotic housing market, and it's a very weird housing market," Rosenberg said, adding that prices have only climbed because supply has dropped even more than demand has.

"Anybody who was willing to superimpose or extrapolate 2007 into 2008 summarily got their heads chopped off," he said. "I think we might relive that."

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