The Blubber

A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025, per CNBC.

A potential lithium shortage looms on the horizon as demand for this metal continues to surge, and various analysts provide differing timelines for when it might occur. Some experts suggest that it could become a concern as early as 2025, while others foresee a more extended timeframe before the deficit becomes evident.

BMI, a research unit under Fitch Solutions, is among those projecting a forthcoming lithium supply shortage by 2025. In a recent report, BMI primarily attributes this shortage to China's lithium demand surpassing its supply capacity.

The report states, "We anticipate an average annual growth of China's lithium demand for electric vehicles (EVs) alone at 20.4% year-on-year over the period of 2023-2032." In contrast, China's lithium supply is expected to grow by only 6% during the same period, which, according to BMI, can only meet a fraction of the projected demand.

China, as the world's third-largest lithium producer, plays a pivotal role in the production of electric vehicle batteries. In 2021, the global lithium production reached 540,000 metric tons, and the World Economic Forum projects that worldwide demand will exceed 3 million metric tons by 2030.

S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that electric vehicle sales will reach 13.8 million in 2023 and then dramatically increase to over 30 million by 2030. Corinne Blanchard, the director of lithium and clean tech equity research at Deutsche Bank, acknowledges the potential for a shortage in the lithium industry. She anticipates a "modest deficit" of approximately 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by the end of 2025. However, her long-term projections indicate a more substantial deficit of 768,000 tonnes by the close of 2030.