The Blubber

A recently expanded pipeline in Western Canada is giving China and other East Asian nations greater access to Alberta’s massive oil sands reserves — a development that’s beginning to reshape global crude flows.

Since the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project began operations in May, Chinese imports of Canadian crude shipped from the Vancouver-area export terminal have surged. According to shipping data from Vortexa Ltd., China imported a record 7.3 million barrels from the terminal in March and is on track to top that volume this month. In contrast, Chinese purchases of American crude have plummeted to just 3 million barrels a month — a dramatic drop from their June peak of 29 million barrels.

This pivot in oil trade patterns highlights the broader global realignment caused by President Trump’s aggressive approach to trade, particularly toward China.

While China began increasing its intake of Canadian oil after TMX came online, the trend has only intensified under Trump’s administration and its tariff-heavy posture toward Beijing. “Given the ongoing trade war, it’s unlikely China will increase U.S. oil imports,” said Wenran Jiang, president of the Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum. “They won’t rely solely on Russia or the Middle East. Supplies from Canada are definitely welcomed.”

Although Canadian oil still accounts for a small share of China’s total crude imports compared to flows from the Middle East and Russia, Alberta’s oil sands offer a valuable alternative. The region produces heavy, high-sulfur crude — a type well-suited for China’s advanced refineries. And in today’s market, it’s a more cost-effective option than similar grades from places like Iraq, where Basrah Heavy crude is priced higher due to strength in the Dubai benchmark.