The Blubber

Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis, per CNBC.

Losses in the credit card sector reached their lowest point in September 2021, and while initial increases likely resulted from the cessation of stimulus measures, they have been steadily climbing since the first quarter of 2022. Since then, the rate of increase in losses has only been surpassed in recent history during the 2008 recession.

However, Goldman Sachs predicts that this trend is far from its conclusion.

At present, losses stand at 3.63%, marking a 1.5 percentage point increase from the low point. Goldman anticipates another rise of 1.3 percentage points, bringing the total to 4.93%. This comes at a time when Americans collectively owe over $1 trillion on their credit cards, a record high according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Analyst Ryan Nash noted, "We anticipate that delinquencies may continue to deviate from the usual seasonal patterns through the middle of next year and do not foresee losses peaking until late 2024 or early 2025 for most issuers."

What sets this situation apart is the acceleration of losses outside of an economic downturn, which Nash pointed out as unusual.

Of the past five credit card loss cycles, three were tied to recessions, Nash explained. The two instances when the economy was not in a recession occurred in the mid-1990s and from 2015 to 2019, providing historical context for predicting further losses.

"In our view, this cycle resembles the characteristics of what was experienced in the late 1990s and is somewhat similar to the '15 to '19 cycle, where losses increased following a period of robust loan growth and has seen a similar pace of normalization thus far in this cycle," Nash stated.