The Blubber

While Elon Musk was making projections about Tesla's robotaxi service launching “next year,” competitor Waymo advanced with its own driverless taxi operations in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, and Austin, utilizing a different approach to autonomous vehicle technology that enabled earlier deployment. The company recently completed its 10 millionth paid ride.

Tesla has experienced sales pressure amid public reactions to Musk’s political statements, while other electric vehicle manufacturers with new offerings have gained market share. Investor sentiment was further impacted following a $150 billion drop in Tesla's market capitalization after Musk engaged in a social media exchange with the U.S. president—who oversees agencies that could influence the regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles. The stock has since partially rebounded after Musk expressed regret for some of his remarks.

Despite periodic controversies, Tesla shareholders have continued to support Musk, in part due to his track record of establishing a successful independent electric vehicle company. Over the past decade, Tesla’s stock has grown significantly, rising from around $18 to $322 at Friday’s close.

On Sunday morning, Musk posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Tesla was beginning its robotaxi pilot in Austin, writing: “The @Tesla_AI robotaxi launch begins in Austin this afternoon with customers paying a $4.20 flat fee!”

The pilot is starting on a small scale. Tesla is remotely monitoring the vehicles and placing a safety operator in the passenger seat. The initial fleet will include around 10 to 12 vehicles, operating within a defined geographic zone.

Musk has said the service will expand to additional cities, with the goal of eventually deploying hundreds of thousands—or even a million—vehicles next year.

Some analysts remain cautious. Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, noted: “How quickly can he expand the fleet? We’re talking maybe a dozen vehicles initially. It’s very small.”

Seth Goldstein of Morningstar added that while Musk’s goals are ambitious, broader rollout may take time. “When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don’t think that will happen until 2028,” he said.

Musk is known for making bold statements that attract investor attention. In 2018, he announced plans to take Tesla private at a premium with “funding secured,” though regulators later said there was no formal agreement in place. Musk was fined, though he did not admit wrongdoing.

In May, Musk said Tesla was seeing a “major rebound” in demand. Shortly after, a European auto trade association reported that Tesla's regional sales had declined by 50%.

Musk has also faced scrutiny over Tesla’s driver-assistance system known as Full Self-Driving (FSD). Despite the name, the system requires drivers to remain attentive and be ready to take control. Federal regulators opened an investigation into FSD following several incidents, and the Department of Justice has reportedly conducted a separate inquiry. Tesla has also been subject to civil lawsuits related to the system, some of which were resolved through settlements, while others were dismissed.