Polls from Fox News, NBC News, and CNN show the race is neck and neck, but results may not be available by Tuesday evening. Each state is responsible for certifying its election results, as managed by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Factors like state-specific rules on when vote counting can begin affect how soon results are available.
“In the two largest counties, counting doesn’t finish until 1 or 2 a.m.," University of Wisconsin professor Mike Wagner told The Guardian. "Several hundred thousand votes come in late, typically from the state’s most liberal counties. By law, counting can’t start until then, so Democrats often gain votes overnight in Wisconsin.”
Fewer mail-in ballots this election, per the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), may quicken the process. But the ACLU noted that each state has its own rules for processing ballots, and some states don’t start until Election Day itself.
Automatic recounts, common in nearly half of U.S. states, could also slow results, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL). States like Florida, Michigan, and Arizona trigger recounts if the margin is within 0.5 percent, while Hawaii requires a recount if the margin is 100 votes or 0.25 percent, whichever is larger. In New York, a recount can be ordered if a “discrepancy exists.”
In 2012, news outlets called Barack Obama’s win around midnight on election day. For Trump in 2016, it took until 3 a.m. ET, while Biden in 2020 wasn’t declared the winner until four days later.
How news outlets “call the race” before official results
While official results might not be available immediately, news outlets often “call the race” before all ballots are counted. According to Protect Democracy, they make this call when “they determine there are not enough outstanding votes for the trailing candidate to catch up.”
