House Republicans have are expecting a government shutdown, per Axios.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces a tough decision in the coming weeks: either engage in a standoff with Democrats that could lead to a shutdown, or strike a deal with them that might endanger his position.
"Some people are predicting a shutdown, even if it's just for a few days," a GOP lawmaker recently told Axios. Another subcommittee chair recently confided to a fellow House Republican that negotiations are on the brink of either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
The government will face a partial shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1. If there's no budget or stopgap by March 8, a full shutdown looms. "We think we're going to meet the deadlines," Johnson told reporters last week.
A critical date is April 30. Failure to pass a new budget by then would trigger a 1% across-the-board spending cut. Democrats are adamant about not supporting a stopgap bill beyond this point.
Some House conservatives are fine with across-the-board cuts, but many are frustrated by the absence of policy provisions on issues like abortion, gender-affirming care, and medical research in the current negotiations.
House Republicans are taking seriously the possibility that Johnson could face a fate similar to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson's simplest option to avoid a shutdown would be to team up with Democrats and pass a deal with a two-thirds majority. However, McCarthy's removal in October was sparked by his collaboration with Democrats on a spending stopgap.
"It's going to be difficult to do what we need to do and not have someone do" a motion to vacate, a member who isn't supportive of removing Johnson told Axios.
Republicans lack a backup plan if Johnson is ousted, and shifting blame to Democrats for a shutdown would be challenging if they become mired in another speaker race stalemate.
One option still on the table is another spending stopgap into late March or April. However, by April 30, Johnson will likely have to make his decision.
