Russia may be prepared to launch a "large-scale war" in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as weakened or divided, according to a new report from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) released on Tuesday.
"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," the report states.
The assessment warns that Moscow is actively strengthening its military to prepare for a potential conflict with NATO, particularly if it believes the U.S. is unwilling or unable to support its European allies in a war.
The DDIS outlines three possible scenarios based on the assumption that Russia cannot sustain multiple large-scale wars simultaneously. If the war in Ukraine ends or becomes frozen, the agency projects:
The analysis does not factor in any potential increases in NATO's defense capabilities, leaving open the possibility that greater military preparedness could deter Russian aggression.
The report comes as Donald Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, which will soon enter its fourth year. At the same time, Trump has pressured NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, more than double the current target.
Trump has also suggested that the U.S. could withdraw from NATO if allies fail to meet their financial commitments. In 2024, he stated that he would "encourage" Russia to attack NATO countries that did not meet their financial obligations—a remark that raised concerns about the alliance’s unity and deterrence strategy.
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