IRS and Treasury Department officials are reportedly expecting tax revenue to decline by more than 10% ahead of the April 15 filing deadline compared to last year, according to The Washington Post, which cited three individuals familiar with internal estimates.
The drop in collections is being attributed to a growing number of individuals and businesses either skipping tax filings altogether or intentionally underpaying what they owe. The projected shortfall could exceed $500 billion in lost federal revenue, the report said.
Sources linked the anticipated revenue dip to changes in taxpayer behavior as well as significant staffing and budget cuts to the IRS under President Donald Trump. The administration’s broader effort to slash government spending—driven by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency—is expected to result in thousands of job losses at the tax agency, particularly damaging during peak tax season.
Experts warn that the downsizing may hinder the IRS’s ability to process returns, enforce compliance, and conduct audits. According to the report, officials have also noted a growing number of social media posts encouraging others to either avoid paying taxes or make dubious claims, under the assumption that audit risk is low.
The Treasury Department dismissed the report, calling it “sensational and baseless,” and urged readers to disregard anonymous sources cited in the story.
