The Blubber

Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed willingness to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, but insists on retaining occupied Ukrainian territory and demands that Kyiv renounce its NATO aspirations, according to five Kremlin insiders who spoke with Reuters.

Trump, who has vowed to end the war quickly, will assume office as Russia occupies a significant portion of Ukrainian land, equivalent in size to Virginia, and advances its military campaign at the fastest pace since 2022. These gains, however, have come at a substantial cost to the Russian armed forces.

Russia currently controls 18% of Ukraine, including the entirety of Crimea, annexed in 2014, 80% of the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk), and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. It also holds nearly 3% of the Kharkiv region and a small section of Mykolaiv, totaling over 110,000 square kilometers.

In a counter-invasion, Ukraine has maintained control over approximately 650 square kilometers of Russia's Kursk region, where Russian forces have struggled against well-fortified Ukrainian defenses.

Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters' Moscow bureau chief, reports that his sources—five current and former Russian officials—indicated that Putin might consider freezing the conflict along current front lines. Negotiations could focus on dividing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

The insiders suggested that Russia might also consider withdrawing from smaller occupied areas in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. However, they warned that recent U.S. approval for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets in Russian territory could delay potential talks and lead Moscow to adopt tougher negotiating positions.