The Blubber

Modifications made to President Donald Trump’s major tax overhaul in the Senate would significantly increase the national debt and result in greater losses in health coverage, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The findings present another hurdle for Republicans as they push to pass the legislation ahead of Trump’s July 4th deadline.

The CBO projects that the Senate version of the bill would raise the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion between 2025 and 2034. That’s almost $1 trillion more than the House-passed version, which the CBO estimated would add $2.4 trillion to the debt over the same period.

In addition to the fiscal impact, the CBO found that the Senate bill would leave 11.8 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034, up from the 10.9 million estimated to lose coverage under the House version.

These stark numbers deepen the challenges facing Republican leaders, who were already struggling to unify their party behind the bill. Divisions persist over spending reductions, especially proposed cuts to Medicaid and nutrition assistance, which some Republicans believe go too far, while others argue they don’t go far enough. These cuts are intended to help offset the cost of extending Trump-era tax breaks totaling around $3.8 trillion.

Tensions were evident on Saturday night as the Senate held open a procedural vote for hours. Vice President JD Vance and GOP leaders worked to sway dissenting senators in a bid to keep the bill on track. The legislation narrowly advanced in a 51-49 vote, but significant hurdles remain, including upcoming amendment votes.

Despite the CBO's assessment, many Republicans dispute the agency’s findings and are instead relying on an alternate budget framework. That model assumes the Trump tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire in December, have already been extended — effectively making them appear budget-neutral.

Using that alternative approach, the CBO issued a separate analysis estimating that the Senate bill would actually reduce deficits by about $500 billion.

Democrats and many economists have criticized the GOP's accounting methods as unrealistic “magic math” that masks the actual cost of the tax cuts. Under traditional budget scoring, they argue, the bill would violate the Senate's Byrd Rule, which prohibits legislation from increasing the federal deficit beyond a 10-year window.