The Blubber

Nearly a year since the first cases of bird flu were identified in cattle, the virus continues to spread unchecked. Early efforts by the U.S. government to contain the outbreak by targeting dairy farms in a few states proved insufficient. Infections have now expanded to at least 860 herds across 16 states. Experts express deep concern over the government’s inability to contain the crisis.

“We are in a terrible situation and heading toward an even worse one,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan. “I don’t know if bird flu will become a pandemic, but if it does, we are in serious trouble.”

An investigation by KFF Health News, which included interviews with nearly 70 stakeholders—government officials, farmers, farmworkers, and researchers—and a review of emails from local health departments, highlighted several systemic failures. These include excessive deference to the farming industry, underfunded public health initiatives, neglect of worker safety in agriculture, and slow federal response times.

For example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently announced a nationwide order to test milk for bird flu. While welcomed by researchers, they criticized the delay, noting that testing months earlier might have prevented the virus from becoming so widespread.

This outbreak mirrors missteps seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Tom Bollyky, director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s disheartening to see the same failures repeating,” he said.

The USDA has already allocated over $1.7 billion to address bird flu in poultry since 2022, covering efforts like reimbursing farmers for culled flocks. It has also spent $430 million combating the virus in cattle. Experts warn that ongoing outbreaks could cost billions more. The dairy industry reports that the virus kills between 2% and 5% of infected cows and reduces milk production in herds by approximately 20%.

The greater danger lies in the potential for a human pandemic. Over 60 individuals in the U.S. have been infected, primarily through contact with cows or poultry. If the virus evolves to spread efficiently between humans, infections could skyrocket. A recent critical case in Louisiana underscores the virus’s potential severity.

Tom Peacock, a bird flu researcher at the Pirbright Institute in the UK, emphasized the risk: “Each infection is like a spin of the slot machine. A few mutations could allow human-to-human transmission.” Even with just a 5% likelihood of a pandemic, he warned, the consequences could rival or surpass those of COVID-19. “The U.S. knows the risks but hasn’t acted decisively to slow this down,” Peacock concluded.