There's now a 50% chance of world war as the Israel-Hamas conflict threatens to spread, per Ray Dalio

There's now a 50% chance of world war as the Israel-Hamas conflict threatens to spread, Ray Dalio has said.

"In my opinion, this war has a high risk of leading to several other conflicts of different types in a number of places, and it is likely to have harmful effects that will extend beyond those in Israel and Gaza," the veteran investor who's also a financial historian wrote in a LinkedIn post on Thursday titled "Another Step Toward International War."

"Primarily for those reasons, it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from 35% to about 50% over the last two years," he said.

"If they spread to other countries, most importantly the major countries, there will be a much more horrific hot world war," he said. "It seems to me that the Israel-Hamas war is another classic, unfortunate step toward a more violent and encompassing international war."

Dalio said: "My more attainable stretch goal would be for the US and China to jointly broker peace in Ukraine," he said.

He said: Based on the perspective I have gained from studying history and from my over 50 years of experiences betting on what’s likely to happen, it seems to me that the Israel-Hamas war is another classic, unfortunate step toward a more violent and encompassing international war. In other words, it’s part of a larger war dynamic. Anyone who has studied history and is watching what is going on should be concerned about 1) these conflicts moving from being contained to being all-out brutal wars that continue until the other side is clearly defeated, and 2) these conflicts spreading to involve more countries. In order to gain perspective on how these pre-war stages in the Big Cycle unfold, I suggest that you study other pre-war periods, such as those in the two years prior to World War I and II in both Europe and Asia. What is happening now sure looks a lot like that. 

tastytrade logo+
Get the best broker for options trading and receive up to $5,000 in cash with an eligible account deposit at tastytrade. Get $50 when you deposit $2000. Offer expires 12/31/24. Certain restrictions, terms and conditions apply.
Unusual Whales does not confirm the information's truthfulness or accuracy of the associated references, data, and cannot verify any of the information. Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Options, investing, trading is risky, and losses are more expected than profits. Please do own research before investing. Please only subscribe after reading our full terms and understanding options and the market, and the inherent risks of trading. It is highly recommended not to trade on this, or any, information from Unusual Whales. Markets are risky, and you will likely lose some or all of your capital. Please check our terms for full details.
Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. See terms for more information.