The Blubber

Trump believes it's likely he'll be convicted, and is bracing for the possibility he'll be the first convicted felon to represent a major party


Insiders inform Axios that Trump is under the belief that a conviction is probable if the Jan. 6 case goes to trial later this spring in Washington. In case of a delay, he might face a guilty verdict in the Manhattan hush-money case.

Trump believes he could still secure the presidency, partly by making daily, dramatic appearances during court hearings for his four cases, which involve a total of 91 felony charges. However, his advisers are concerned that a conviction in a jury trial might repel independent voters.

In the current scenario, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, overseeing the Jan. 6 case, has shown a strict stance on Capitol rioters in her court and signaled that Trump won't receive any leniency. The jury will be drawn from D.C., which predominantly leans Democratic.

Initially, Trump's legal team considered it highly likely that the case would go to trial before the Republican convention in Milwaukee in July. However, with various legal maneuvers, including claims of presidential immunity from prosecution, the likelihood of a delay is increasing.

The trial, originally scheduled for March 4, has been removed from the public court calendar, as reported by The Washington Post on Thursday. Appeals could further push the trial into late spring or summer, and the closer it gets to Election Day, the less likely it is to occur.

What seems more probable now is that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who has accused Trump of silencing porn star Stormy Daniels, may initiate his trial as early as March 25. Bragg is attempting to add urgency and significance to his case by framing it as election interference, according to The New York Times.

These two cases, in D.C. and Manhattan, are expected to have juries more inclined against Trump. The other two cases are in Georgia and Florida. Trump's legal team is confident that the indictments have boosted his standing in the GOP primary, leading to increased donations and improved poll numbers with each round of charges.