The Blubber

As former President Donald Trump doubles down on tariffs as a tool to revive U.S. manufacturing, economists are casting doubt on whether the strategy will deliver its promised results.

According to a new report from Wells Fargo, U.S. manufacturing employment currently stands at 12.8 million jobs—far below its 1979 high of 20 million. While the tariffs aim to restore the sector to its former glory, the report suggests they are instead creating short-term obstacles for manufacturers looking to grow their workforce and increase production.

"Tariffs are intended to jumpstart a lasting revival in American factory jobs," wrote Sarah House, the report’s author. "But from our perspective, a significant rebound in manufacturing employment doesn’t appear likely anytime soon."

Even though Trump temporarily paused certain Chinese tariffs earlier this month—and previously eased “reciprocal tariffs”—he has continued to issue new threats. On Friday, he warned of a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union beginning next month, and proposed a 25% tariff on Apple products unless the tech giant relocates iPhone production to the U.S. Earlier in May, Trump criticized Apple CEO Tim Cook, saying he had a "little problem" with him and calling for the company to stop manufacturing in India. Industry analysts have warned that moving iPhone production stateside would be a “non-starter,” potentially adding thousands of dollars to the cost of each device.

Markets have reacted sharply to Trump’s escalating trade rhetoric. Companies like Walmart and Amazon have cautioned that higher tariffs could either shrink their profit margins or lead to higher prices for consumers. This economic pressure, Wells Fargo notes, is counterproductive to growing the manufacturing workforce in the near term.

Longer-term growth in U.S. manufacturing, the report adds, would take years and require sustained investment in the trillions of dollars. U.S. labor costs remain far higher than those in countries where manufacturing currently thrives, and business leaders say there simply isn’t enough affordable, skilled labor available domestically.

"I have 15,000 artisans working in Thailand," Pandora CEO Alexander Lacik told CNBC. "I can’t find that kind of skilled labor force in the U.S. with the same level of craftsmanship."