The Blubber

Several major U.S. airlines revised their earnings forecasts downward on Tuesday, following Delta Air Lines' earlier warning about economic uncertainty dampening both corporate and consumer travel spending.

Airlines also cautioned that economic pressures could force them to further cut capacity after the summer travel season to avoid fare discounts.

Economic Uncertainty Hits Travel Demand

Confidence among U.S. consumers and businesses has weakened amid fallout from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and the potential for additional levies, raising fears of rising costs. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely watched GDPNow tracker suggests the economy could contract in the first quarter of the year.

Since travel spending often mirrors broader economic trends, analysts warn that a downturn could spell trouble for the airline industry. Already, revenue from government-related travel has declined due to federal budget cuts following Trump's return to the White House.

"Economic uncertainty is a big deal," American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at a JPMorgan industry conference.

Isom and Delta CEO Ed Bastian also pointed to recent air accidents and extreme weather events as additional factors weighing on travel demand.

Airline Forecasts Take a Hit

On Tuesday, American Airlines projected a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss, citing a sharp decline in revenue. Southwest Airlines also cut its first-quarter revenue outlook, blaming a slowdown in government travel and disruptions from the California wildfires.

United Airlines announced that its first-quarter earnings would likely come in at the lower end of its forecast, citing a 50% drop in government travel bookings. The airline noted that reduced government spending was also affecting domestic leisure travel.

Just a day earlier, Delta slashed its profit estimates by half, citing weaker demand for domestic travel.

These cuts mark a stark reversal from just a month ago when limited industry-wide capacity and strong consumer demand had boosted airlines' pricing power, raising hopes for sustained profitability.

Airline Stocks Take a Hit

Concerns over declining travel spending have rattled airline stocks, with the selloff intensifying on Tuesday.

Delta’s shares, already down 29% in the past month, fell another 8% in midday trading. United Airlines dropped 5%, while American Airlines declined 6%.

Southwest Airlines, however, bucked the trend, rising 7% after scrapping its long-standing free checked bag policy to drive revenue growth.

The S&P 500 passenger airlines index has dropped 23% in the past month, significantly underperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which has fallen about 8% over the same period.