The Blubber

The U.S. is expected to announce next week a long-awaited agreement with Iraq to reduce its troop presence in the country, two administration officials said on Friday.

Negotiations over the plan, which Iraqi officials have publicly stated would lead to the departure of the 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq by the end of 2026, are in the final stages, according to the officials. They acknowledged that the fight against the remnants of ISIS in Iraq and Syria is not yet finished.

"ISIS has been significantly defeated, especially territorially, but we want to ensure its lasting defeat. The threat still remains," a senior Defense Department official told reporters on Friday. The officials spoke anonymously to discuss unannounced plans.

The upcoming announcement comes amid escalating regional tensions, with Israeli and Hezbollah fighters increasing attacks amid fears of a broader conflict. Since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza last year, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have faced attacks from Iranian proxies.

This announcement is expected after U.S. and Iraqi officials meet again at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week. It is part of the Biden administration's broader effort to resolve longstanding American military commitments abroad before President Joe Biden leaves office in January. The administration is also working to secure Ukraine's position for eventual peace negotiations with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to present his peace plan to Biden when they meet in Washington after the U.N. meetings.

However, the planned U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq has raised concerns on Capitol Hill.

In a statement released Thursday, House Armed Services Committee Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) expressed frustration with what he has heard from the Pentagon about the deal.

“There appears to be no strategic military advantage to this decision,” he wrote on social media. “Withdrawing from Iraq like this would only benefit and embolden Iran and ISIS. I’m deeply worried about the national security implications.”

In recent months, American and Iraqi special operations forces have conducted several raids targeting ISIS leadership due to an increase in the group's attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces.

The Defense Department official noted that these raids will continue as the U.S. presence in Iraq shifts, with the goal to "further weaken the group, prevent external operations, and disrupt their command structure." That capability, he said, will remain.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said this week that "the justifications for a large U.S. presence are no longer valid." He added, "There’s no longer a need for a coalition. We’ve transitioned from wars to stability. ISIS is no longer a major threat."

Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi echoed this sentiment in a recent interview with Al-Arabiya, announcing that both countries have already agreed to transform Operation Inherent Resolve—the coalition formed in 2014 to fight ISIS—into a smaller “sustainable security partnership.” This would see the U.S. troop presence in Iraq reduced from 2,500 to a smaller advisory role through 2026.